What can behavioural finance teach investors about interpreting financial and economic data? My talk at the Royal Institution’s 14-10 Club offers some examples of behavioural biases from reporting by central banks, companies and fund managers. The talk and slides can be viewed or uploaded as a pdf from this Dropbox link.
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Tag Archives: anchoring
Deflation an unimagined world for investors
May 8, 2014 
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Experience drives what we recognise and forecast, but deflation is unfamiliar territory. Investors base analysis on what they know and understand; periods of stable or rising prices. But that is not the pattern now; Europe’s inflation outlook is steadily being revised down, but getting little attention. Even if the deflation risk is recognised, the problem […]
Continue readingBehavioural Finance Jan 2013
February 21, 2013 1 Comment
“Behavioural Finance & Investment” MSc in Investment Management, Heriot-Watt University 22 January 2013 Presentation by Professor Colin McLean I am going to focus on some practical ways in which behavioural finance can be applied day-to-day, and draw some conclusions about what we can do about psychology. I am not going to tell you to try […]
Continue readingFall in £ will boost UK market
February 20, 2013 0 Comments
The risk of a sharp fall in the Pound this year is gaining credibility. A continuing trade deficit, combined with declining North Sea oil production, poses a big challenge. And politicians might even encourage a weaker Pound to restore competitiveness and revive the UK economy. That worked immediately after the 2008 financial crisis. This time […]
Continue readingForecasting biases; anchoring & optimism
January 28, 2011 0 Comments
The start of the year – while company results are awaited – is forecasting time. There may not be much fresh information, but analysts re-work their figures nevertheless. We get index forecasts for the year, new stock price targets and revised assumptions for commodities, currencies and interest rates. The calendar drives analysts’ output. Typically, optimism […]
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Behavioural Edge 