The best analysts work with what they know, and minimise forecasting. Assessing a company’s strengths and the price paid for shares usually beats making projections. So why, when it comes to the economy, is this discipline set aside? The Bank of England has now worked with forward guidance for more than a year, with little […]
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Tag Archives: Hindsight bias
Behavioural Finance Jan 2013
February 21, 2013 
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“Behavioural Finance & Investment” MSc in Investment Management, Heriot-Watt University 22 January 2013 Presentation by Professor Colin McLean I am going to focus on some practical ways in which behavioural finance can be applied day-to-day, and draw some conclusions about what we can do about psychology. I am not going to tell you to try […]
Continue readingUsing a journal to beat hindsight bias
December 7, 2011 0 Comments
Even before the year is over, investors are looking to 2012. Forecasting is what the industry likes to do in the festive season. But, is there something more useful to do in December, something that might be more help to 2012 performance than predictions? It is not too late for investors to learn from 2011. […]
Continue readingBiases in analysing company reports
March 24, 2010 0 Comments
The company results season keeps analysts busy, with an avalanche of information. Indeed, more numbers are delivered than realistically can be analysed. Behavioural finance tells us that it is human to make mistakes in understanding all this data – but how can investors get the most out of all this company news? The problem is […]
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Behavioural Edge 