Trump is an immediate negative for markets around the world, as seen already in Asia. Immediate winners are gold, Treasuries and the Yen; but losers include the US Dollar, Mexican Peso, oil, climate change and equities. Since 1948, the Dow has typically fallen under a Republican. But if Trump’s presidency echoes Reagan’s leadership, markets may […]
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Tag Archives: Markets
New bubbles from misguided monetary policy
September 22, 2016 
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Have any lessons been learned following the Great Financial Crisis? Around the world, it looks like new bubbles are growing. Certainly, the crisis showed that central banks and politicians can move decisively on the threat of economic collapse. But the sequel has been years of bad policy; propping up banks, bad loans and unsustainable growth. […]
Continue reading EU Referendum: Investors should be wary of the polls
April 5, 2016 0 Comments
How should investors prepare for Britain’s referendum on EU membership? Shares were weak ahead of the Scottish referendum and the UK general election, but ultimately it proved right to ignore the opinion polls. Polls can capture a lot of biases and wishful thinking, whereas voting often concentrates the mind. In the polling booth, fear of […]
Continue readingMixed signals for 2016; deflation still the global risk
January 4, 2016 0 Comments
Investors enter 2016 divided on outlook: economic signals are mixed. The global economy is out of sync; with growth in the UK and US, but a slowdown in the developing world. How should investors position for the year ahead? Investors who were under-weight in oil, mining and industrials in 2015 might be forgiven for feeling […]
Continue reading 3 key psychological challenges for investors
November 13, 2015 0 Comments
What are the main challenges to achieving good long term returns? Investors focus mainly on what the stockmarket might do; less so on their own behaviour. Some of the human behaviour that confers advantage in everyday life can drive poor investment decisions. The big challenges include; how we search for patterns and trends, the desire […]
Continue reading Why are commodities over-represented in indices?
October 19, 2015 0 Comments
Do investors have an outdate view of commodities? Far from helping to diversify portfolios, or representing a tangible way to benefit from economic growth, commodities have become volatile financial plays. A misguided view of the nature of these assets has resulted in them being over-represented in indices. Indeed, many passive investors may be surprised to […]
Continue reading Tougher regulation needed for UK listed company directors
September 7, 2015 0 Comments
A gap has opened up in UK regulation, leaving investors exposed to Companies Act and accounting issues without a clear remedy. Despite all the focus on governance and stewardship, investors are still getting nasty surprises. Tesco and Quindell are perhaps just the highest profile of those involved in further investigations. Making the stockmarket safer should […]
Continue reading Not what was forecast: UK index funds lagging active managers
July 31, 2015 0 Comments
Many UK active funds are now outperforming passive funds. But prejudices rarely disappear when hit with the facts. It is human nature to disregard data that contradicts our misplaced beliefs. This may be why little attention has been paid to the remarkable results of many active UK fund managers – in the face of much […]
Continue reading Illusory liquidity and other risks from misguided central bank policy
July 7, 2015 0 Comments
Does liquidity matter? Not, it seems, to regulators and central banks. Little thought is being given to the global systemic risk created by today’s liquidity illusion. In a world awash with money, trading is actually drying up, with little depth in many markets. Entering positions is easy, but the exit doors could prove surprisingly narrow. […]
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Behavioural Edge 
8 years on, has Lehman cut global bank risks?
The Great Financial Crisis still casts a shadow in the industry, eight years on. The fear remains that it might not be the main event, but simply advance warning of something bigger. After two decades of accumulated bank leverage and a few years of irresponsible lending, the remedy has mainly been sticking plasters. Regulation has […]
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